City plans for future without a census

Hamilton City Council has turned to Waikato University to plan the city’s needs, following the cancellation of the 2011 census – but it’s a temporary solution with problems likely in the future.

The loss of the census due to the Canterbury earthquake in February has left the council without up-to-date statistics about Hamilton.

However, it has another source, Waikato University’s National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis.

The institute uses the last census statistics and other statistics gathered by Statistics New Zealand, and conducts its own projections for Hamilton.

“They look at specific things that may not have been considered in the Statistics New Zealand projection,” said council planner Paul Gower.

“They are more locally focused, and have more input into the assumptions of projected growth for Hamilton.”

Institute researcher Bill Cochrane said the demise of the census was a major issue. “It’s at the very base of planning that local government does, so now we are using less contemporary data.

“With the data ending at 2006, we have no idea what is happening at a small level, like Hamilton, or in the new areas like the subdivisions, that can change radically over a five year period.”

“It will have major implications for planning; however, we have a number of methods we can use to take these things into account. They aren’t as good as they would be if we had current data but they’re by no means really bad.”

The institute’s statistics would be better for planning than out of date census statistics, said councillor Dave Macpherson, who is the City Planning and Development chairperson.

Based on the institute’s statistics, Mr Macpherson is focusing on the immediate expansion and development in Rototuna.

These developments include the placement of primary and secondary schools to allow for the increasing population.

But Mr Cochrane has warned that problems were likely in the future due to the census cancellation.

“You would find it very difficult to find out what the effect of the global economic crisis has been at a local area level because the 2006 was taken in the best of times.

“If another census wasn’t taken until 2016, then most of the financial consequences would be dampened by then, and then we would have no idea what happened”