Basketball: Tall Blacks World Cup side could “make some waves”

Opinion:

After a couple of warm-up games, coach Pero Cameron and assistant coaches Michael Fitchett, Zico Coronel and Aaron Young have announced their 12 strong man team for the upcoming World Cup in Philippines which starts in a couple of days.

The team is: Finn Delany (NZ Breakers), Flynn Cameron (Melbourne United), Hyrum Harris (Hawke’s Bay Hawks/Perth Wildcats), Isaac Fotu (Utsunomiya Brex – Japanese B League), Izayah Le’Afa (Wellington Saints/NZ Breakers), Jordan Ngatai (Hawke’s Bay Hawks), Reuben Te Rangi (Auckland Tuatara/South East Melbourne Phoenix), Shea Ili (Melbourne United), Taylor Britt (Canterbury Rams), Tohi Smith-Milner (Wellington Saints), Walter Brown (Canterbury Rams/Tasmania JackJumpers) and Yanni Wetzell (Alba Berlin – German League).

While it has multiple levels of talent in every position, most notably in returning NZ Breaker Finn Delany there are some notable admissions from the squad. High profile names like Ethan Rutsbatch (injury) and brother duo Tai and Corey Webster (personal reasons) are all missing, while Rob Loe and Thomas Abercrombie announced their retirements earlier this year. Steven Adams (NBA – Memphis Grizzlies) decided not to don the black singlet and made himself unavailable before the original squad was announced.

With that said, it looks like a team that could make some waves at the World Cup when they take on the USA, Greece and Jordan in the group stages.

The USA team is particularly underwhelming from previous years, as most of their stars like LeBron James, Jayson Tatum, Steph Curry and Damian Lillard have decided to take a rest from international duty, with the impending NBA season starting only a month after the end of the World Cup.

Gabe’s predictions for the World Cup

First game is against the mighty USA – I believe even with the big NBA stars out, it is still a strong squad. The keys for this game like with any USA team will be to limit their fast break opportunities (no easy feat), while also keeping an eye on stars Anthony Edwards and Jaren Jackson Jr. While the team itself haven’t played much games together, limiting the score line will be of the upmost importance to the Tall Blacks. USA by 25.

Second game is against Jordan – While this seems to be the easiest group stage game out of the three, Jordan will pose a threat. With their expansive style and physicality the Tall Blacks will need to be on their game to get by their Middle eastern counterparts. A win is a must in this game. Tall Blacks by 15.

Third game is against Greece – With the Greek team missing NBA star Giannis Antetokounmpo (injury) this game might just decide who comes out of the group. Dealing with the size and physicality of the Greeks will be whether or not the Tall Blacks win this game and reach the next phase of the tournament, while also determining who gains automatic qualification for the 2024 Olympic in France. The Greece team also lacks shooting, so rebounding the ball will be key to limit second-chance points. Tall Blacks upset by 5.

Standings in Group C will be as follows: 1st: USA, 2nd: NZ, 3rd: Greece and 4th: Jordan.

Round of 16

From here both the top 2 teams in all groups will have another 2 games against another groups top 2. In the case of the USA and NZ that will be from group D (Egypt, Mexico, Lithuania and Montenegro).

First game will be against Lithuania: While a win for the Tall Blacks is unlikely with Lithuania being the 8th best team in the world, it isn’t impossible. Like a lot of the opponents for the Tall Blacks this campaign, the Lithuanians are a big and experienced team with a few NBA players amongst them. The shooting from the Tall Blacks will need to be clicking to get them over the edge. Tall Blacks with an upset by 5.

Second game will be against Montenegro: A win here isn’t vital, with Lithuania needing to beat the USA to qualify if that happens. It will send the team off to the 1/4 finals in good form, which is very much needed in a knockout tournament setting. They will have to deal with Nikola Vucevic (a walking double-double machine) but the inexperience in other facets of their team might be to big on basketballs biggest stage. Tall Blacks by 10.

Quarter Finals

A match against host nation Philippines or Serbia: While the run for the Tall Blacks up until this point will be a successful campaign, they will not want to end it there. Like all host nations who get that added support from their fans, a potential matchup with the Philippines could be on the cards. A massive turnout of fans is expected for all their games and a 1/4 final matchup, would certainly be no different. Shutting down NBA player Jordan Clarkson will be key, but also the speed of play that the host nation plays with might just wear the Tall Blacks down. The size difference that the Tall Blacks will have (the first time in the tournament) might just creep them over the edge, even with a loud and passionate crowd against them every step of the way. Tall Blacks by 7. The other matchup could be against Serbia. Even with NBA Finals MVP Nikola Jokic not competing at the tournament (rest) the Serbians are still a strong team. With last World Cups reigning scoring champion and NBA star Bogdan Bogdanovic playing, shutting him down will be the key to success. That being said, it does lack that defensive toughness that the Tall Blacks will face earlier on in the tournament. A win is certainly a possibility, especially given the fact the Tall Blacks like to score at a high rate of nots. Tall Blacks by 5.

Semi Final/3rd vs 4th Playoff

A match up against Australia/Slovenia/Canada/Spain or France

Note: The reason why I included 5 teams here is that Canada, Spain and France will fight it out in the Round of 16 to make the 1/4 finals with only two of them going through, that is something which could be a toss of the coin.

Now it doesn’t matter how you look at this next game (whoever they play). A win is definitely not happening, especially with all these teams having a number of NBA stars and basketball veterans amongst them. The key for this one will be keeping the score line respectable, and that is dependent on if the Tall Blacks score well. This game could turn ugly quick, which would be a shame given the Tall Blacks deep run in the tournament up until this point. They will likely face one of these teams in the 3rd vs 4th playoff game too (USA could be the other one) a match that will likely end up with a similar score like their semi final matchup. Whoever the Tall Blacks play by 25 in both games.

The FIBA Basketball World Cup starts on August 25th, with all Tall Blacks games available on TVNZ+ and Duke

USA vs Tall Blacks – 27th August – 12.40am

Tall Blacks vs Jordan – 28th August – 8.45pm

Greece vs Tall Blacks – 31st August – 12.40am

Round of 16 – Will start on the 31st of August, with the Tall Blacks game starting on the 1st of September. There will be one day between games. Time TBC.

Quarter Finals – This will start on the 5th of September till the 6th. Time TBC.

Semi Finals – 8th of September for both games. Time TBC.

3rd and 4th place game – 10th of September. Time: 8.40pm

Grand Final – 11th of September. Time: 12.40am

Times and dates are NZ Time.